How Rare is Your BTC Flower?
Happy New Year! We’re only four days away from our January 3rd mint, commemorating the 13th anniversary of Bitcoin's genesis. We’re excited that you’re here with us on this journey and would like to provide a full rarity breakdown so you know what you’re getting when the flowers are unveiled.
BTC Flower’s characteristic details were revealed in a recent blog, but their independent and combined rarities haven’t been revealed until now. Here are the percentages for each characteristic that will guide our January 3rd mint.
- Dollar — 6%
- PayPal — 7%
- Amex — 9%
- Mastercard — 9%
- Visa — 9%
- Yuan — 15%
- Yen — 15%
- Pound — 15%
- Euro — 15%
- White — 40%
- Grey — 35%
- Black — 25%
Grave, Flower, & Bitcoin Textures:
- Gold — 10%
- Diamond — 12.5%
- Silver — 15%
- Black — 17.5%
- Green — 20%
- White — 25%
***Note that the actual mint will not contain these exact percentages, as there won’t be whole numbers with a mint of 2009. These percentages will be used as parameters for the mint, but the outcome will have variance as Entrepot calculates rarity based on the percentages present in the finalized mint.***
Here’s a typical example flower that’ll add some imagery to the names:
This example has a grey background, a green Bitcoin and Flower, and a white Tombstone with the Euro symbol. But remember there’s something special about this flower, even though each of its components is pretty common. Since both the Bitcoin and Flower textures are green, this flower has a pair, representing some genetic purity in this corner of the garden. By current percentages, only 4% of flowers will have a green pair. That’s more rare than any single characteristic!
The challenge is bringing those pairs and three of a kinds into the collection without skewing the rarity curve, as the chance of getting a specific double or triple is the square or cube of that texture’s rarity:
Probability of Texture ^pairing factor -> pG**2 = 0.2 **2 = 4%
If you haven’t already, be sure to check out our characteristic breakdown blog where we discuss those double and triple pairings, how rarities are calculated, the importance of getting their balance just right. Ultimately, the goal is minting a collection with the fairest distribution of flowers while having rarities match our intuitions of beauty. We seem to have struck gold with the listed percentages. There are now about as many flowers with no special trait as there are with pairs or three of a kinds, and the slope of the number of increasingly rare combinations is smooth and gradual. Here’s the outcome represented graphically with a demo sample of 100,000.
For reference, the actual mint will in all likely hood have between 1 and 5 gold triple flowers (flowers with a golden tombstone, flower, and bitcoin). But this only outlines the number of each that will be produced and leaves much to be desired in terms of how rarity is distributed.
As far as we’re concerned, it shouldn’t be the case that every flower with a pair is more valuable than those with none, or that every flower with a three of a kind is more rare than every pair. Rarity should consider the flower as a whole and match our intuitions of their beauty, not have one arbitrary metric decide their fate. We accounted for that and made sure there is plenty of interplay in rarity scores between flowers of different paring types.
This is a series of graphs showing how rarity will be distributed with 100,000 possible flowers. Each dot is a flower and the lower it falls on the graph the more rare it is. Feel free to place your flower on the graph to see how it stacks up.
How will you know what you’ll get? You won’t. You’ll initially see a seed available on Entrepot and the rest is up to the Internet Computer’s randomness.
As a side note, the flower petal graphics will have their own unique combination not shared by any other in the collection. Check out our latest blog for more info on petal graphics. There will also be no duplicates, so no other flower with share the characteristics of yours. Ludo was also very careful to arrange textures that go together, even the common ones. If you ask us, flowers without rare combos are every bit as beautiful, and every flower will carry the same influence in the Flower Power DAO, regardless of rarity. The benefit of carrying out this analysis is keeping the BTC Flower characteristics balanced across the chimera. This distribution will also carry over to the ETH and ICP Flowers. It should also make for more lively secondary markets since no lone characteristic will separate a few flowers as legendary and leave the vast majority comparatively lame. It’s also just nice that each BTC Flower can find a fitting place on a transparent spectrum based on easily recognizable characteristics. If you’re lucky enough to get a double or triple, feel free to come back to the above graph to see where your flower lands.
Keep up with real-time details @btcflower as we continue toward the mint.